Editors’ Take: The rupee saw a fall of 50 paise in the market on Tuesday. What is the market connection of crude oil and rupee? Why so much drop in rupee in one day? What’s happening in the commodity market? What to do in banking and auto stocks? Zee Business Managing Director Anil Singhvi explained in a TV Show ‘Editors Take’.
Singhvi said that India has only one problem – crude oil. India imports 70 percent of the country’s crude oil. So, if the price of crude oil is cheap then our balance sheet will be fine, and if it rises then the balance sheet will be disturbed. He further said that India can afford crude oil up to $120. But the question is for how long? India cannot afford crude oil cost of $120 for the whole year. In fact, even if this time is reduced to 6 months, the answer will be the same, Singhvi said.
Explaining the market relation of crude oil and the rupee, the Managing Director said that, earlier, the price of Crude Oil was USD 70 – USD 80 and at that time the value of the Rupee was around 72 against the Dollar. And now the crude oil has reached to USD 115 – USD 120, whereas the rupee has fallen to 79 – 80 against the dollar. That means the Indian currency fell by more than 10% and the price of crude oil increased by about 40%. He said that if crude oil comes down then only the Indian currency will strengthen and vice versa.
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Taking about the correlation between crude oil and the rupee, Market Guru said if the crude oil remains so high and the rupee remains the same, then it is suggested to not show any momentum in the market.
Apart from this, he said, the banking stocks on which we were bullish earlier, are now in little cautious category. Whereas auto stocks, on which we were bullish earlier, are now in the neutral category.